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09/04/2008 - Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reigning four-time champion Roger Federer was a hard-fought quarterfinal winner Thursday at the U.S. Open. The Swiss superstar will now play in his record 18th straight major semifinal.
The second-seeded former world No. 1 Federer held off qualifier Gilles Muller of Luxembourg 7-6 (7-5), 6-4, 7-6 (7-5) on Day 11 on the hardcourts at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.
Federer took the first set via tiebreak against the 6-foot-5 big-serving Muller, as neither player was able to record a service break in the opening stanza.
In the second set, the Swiss would assume control of the bout by registering the first, and only, break of the match for a 5-4 lead and then closed out the stanza with a hold for a commanding two-sets-to-love advantage.
The third set went to another tiebreak, which Federer captured by winning five of the last six points. He converted on his first match point when a game Muller netted one final backhand.
Muller swatted 16 aces in the 2-hour, 26-minute affair.
Federer is now 3-0 lifetime against the 130th-ranked Muller, with their previous two meetings coming in 2005.
The upstart 25-year-old Muller upset fifth-seeded Russian Nikolay Davydenko, 18th-seeded Spaniard Nicolas Almagro and former top-10 star Tommy Haas at this Big Apple fortnight. He overcame two-sets-to-love deficits against both the German Haas and Almagro.
The 12-time major titlist Federer beat Serbian star Novak Djokovic in last year's finale in New York and has now won his last 32 matches here.
Federer was this year's Wimbledon and French Open runner-up to Spanish stalwart Rafael Nadal, who supplanted the Swiss atop the men's rankings last month.
The 27-year-old Federer's semifinal opponent on Saturday will be a third- seeded Djokovic or eighth-seeded American Andy Roddick, the former No. 1 who titled here back in 2003. The Australian Open champion Djokovic and Roddick will do battle here on Thursday night.
Djokovic and Roddick have split their two previous meetings on the ATP circuit, but Roddick is 1-0 this year, with the victory coming in a hardcourt semifinal in Dubai.
Saturday's other semi will pit the five-time major champion Nadal against sixth-seeded Brit Andy Murray, as those two men won their quarterfinal matches here on Wednesday. The 21-year-old Murray will appear in his first-ever Grand Slam semi.
<< Giants sign Burress to extension
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New York and wide receiver Plaxico
Burress agreed on a two-year contract extension Thursday, hours before the
Giants begin defense of their title against the Washington Redskins.
Burress, who h
<< Crew's Schelotto earns MLS Player of Month for August
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Columbus Crew midfielder Guillermo Barros
Schelotto was voted Major League Soccer's Player of the Month for August, it
was announced on Thursday.
Schelotto scored a goal while also recording six assists
<< Phillies 3B coach Smith suspended for two games
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Major League Baseball suspended Philadelphia
Phillies third base coach Steve Smith for two games and fined him an
undisclosed amount on Thursday.
Smith was disciplined for his inappropriate actions
<< Reds rally to down Bucs
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joey Votto hit the go-ahead RBI single in
Cincinnati's three-run eighth inning, as the Reds averted a sweep with an 8-6
win over the Pirates in the finale of a three-game set.
Votto also homered, and Jay
Bills LB Crowell to have surgery >>
Orchard Park, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Buffalo Bills linebacker Angelo Crowell
will miss Sunday's season-opener and might be out for up to four weeks after
revealing to the team on Thursday that he will undergo knee surgery.
Crowell decid
NFL Inactives (Thursday, September 4, 2008) >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The following is a list of inactive players
for tonight's NFL game.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS AT NEW YORK GIANTS, 7:00 P.M. (ET)
Redskins - 3rd QB Colt Brennan, WR Malcolm Kelly, CB Shawn Springs, S Kareem
Mo
Broncos release Sapp >>
Englewood, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Denver Broncos released fullback
Cecil Sapp on Thursday.
Sapp, who was placed on injured reserve by the Broncos last Saturday, rushed
for 59 yards and two scores on 18 attempts in 16 games last
Blues sign first-round pick >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Blues signed defenseman Alex
Pietrangelo, club president John Davidson announced Thursday. Per club policy,
terms of the deal were not disclosed.
Pietrangelo was the fourth-overall pick in th
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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